From the Department of Looking Ahead
Since today's the day we're all balancing on the pinhead of a year gone and a year to come, I got the notion to pull up and re-read an article I wrote last year on the subject of trends and consequences to the horse world.Actually, it was merely the text version of a talk I'd been giving to various equine groups for a couple of years. Before 2008's you-show-what hit the fan.
I couldn't help but apply all that came down in the second half of 2008 to what I'd been thinking and writing about earlier. Because I think the latest effects of economic crisis and changes in the public's mood are only going to make things change faster and more furiously all around.
Here's the article, if you care to read it (stand by for a longish read). Love to know what thoughts it sparks.
Trends:Consequences.doc
posted by Juli Thorson @ 1:50 PM
7 comments
7 Comments:
After reading your article, I can only respond as a consumer. I fit your description of the Baby Boomer. I am not very interested in showing my horse although he is show quality and had been shown by his previous owner. My daughter showed her Tennessee Walker for years, and it was great. Just not for me. I have just about forced our granddaughter to love horses. The day she was born, I asked her what color horse she wanted (not breed). I own a registered quarter horse that I trail ride, my daughter’s retired horse and my granddaughter’s small horse. I now only subscribe to three magazines, 2 of which are horse magazines, and pour over them, from cover to cover, even reading ads which I would not have done a few years back. I have the time and interest now. I put my granddaughter on her horse every time she comes to our house. She really doesn’t have much of a choice. Come to think of it, if our granddaughter wanted to show a horse, I would be right back at it with her. I can see a down turn on our incomes which will effect my spending, at least in the near future; however, I will always own a horse. I don’t think my daughter will just because of where they reside. So you are right the horse future in our little family, will be our granddaughter and me. Just some rambling thoughts.
I'm not in the business. My ideas are based solely on my observations and are just my opinion.
One section of your document is sadly out of date — the part about people being on fixed incomes. Certainly, there will be (the lucky) some for whom this is true, but so many of us have watched our retirement portfolios disappear before our very eyes. What took years to amass was gone in a matter of three months. At one point, partial retirement seemed possible, but now? I'll probably drop dead at my desk.
The focus may have been on kids in certain areas of the country or in certain socio-economic groups in the 1950s & 1960s, but when it came to horses, it just wasn't in the cards for me as a kid. I carried it in my heart to middle age, where I had to make it happen for myself. I hope I do have a grandchild to pass it to — and not just the love, but the actual having and doing, which I did not have.
I'm not sure how this relates to what you said, but somehow, it feels like it does. A friend of mine went to a horse auction here in North Texas and said there were get of the great Hollywood Dun It going for as little as $25! In her words, "Not surprising when there were, like, a hundred of them." I, too, have watched the horse auctions on RFD and seen horses with crazy good breeding going for $600-$800, and again, there were probably 60-70 of them. Of course Hollywood Dun It was a great horse, as is Smart Little Lena and Peptoboonsmal, but when there's so many of them... when everything's special, nothing's special.
Thanks for such a thought-provoking post, and Happy New year, Juli!
Well conceived article and extremely insightful. I've had many of the same thoughts about the Baby boomers,their decreasing numbers and the 'replacement' riders. I see it in the shows I attend- every year there are fewer and fewer kids.
I am President of a local Horsemen's Association and we quit having shows several years ago due to lack of interest in the smaller schooling shows. We were spending loads of money on good judges, and were not getting the people in to make it back. With the downturn we are thinking about reviving the smaller one day shows hoping that local riders will still want to show their horses at a local level.
Your conclusion urges us not to put band-aids on the current state of affairs. I guess in some respects the band aids will actually be the answers- the smaller shows, downsizing herds, breeding less backyard horses, making do with older equipment. ON the other hand, it is going to take a long time for the grandchildren to step into their grandparents boots and take up the reins of horsemanship.
On that note one more thought-
I grew up on a ranch (no longer possible in most of California) with the old ranchers and hands teaching me about riding horses. I didn't dare ask stupid questions, I learned by doing and sometimes by being thrown. I was able to spend hours on the back of my horse- playing cowboys and indians, calvary, and so on. The new generation is no longer allowed to roam on their horses like was, they are over booked for soccer,baseball,violin,swimming and any number of other activities that are a lot cheaper than owning a horse. People that are going to want to own horses as adults are going to look to clinicians as a way to get hands on learning. Some of those are good, and some of those are bad- I wish there was a better way of determining the good from the bad- a national database or a stringent National Association of some kind. Just a thought.
Very thought provoking. I have been researching the effect of the decline of available slaughter on the larger ranches vs. the small breeder (15 foals or less per year) at work. Your article has given me a whole new pile to think through. Thjank you. I think.
So much to think about.
There is another aspect of horses that I think has not been addressed. Liability. Vaquerogirls reply triggered this for me...
"I learned by doing and sometimes by being thrown. "
being injured is becoming more and more likely to cost barn owners their property and livelihood, or to deter others from going *into* the business. I know that at our own barn, riding by non-family members and/or riding students is heavily discouraged. Forty years ago, people didn't sue for injuries the way they do now. If we wanted to ride and fell off...well, it was part of the experience. Not so much anymore.
I think the advances in science that have encouraged the very well known and successful stallions to be available to many across the country have impacted the status and possible profit of many horses. As Leah Fry said "when everything is special, nothing is special". Just now I looked up Special Invitation horses for sale. They are all over, Maryland, Oregon, Texas. All one has to do, is wait for the right opportunity to buy what you want custom made....color/gender/age/riding level/locale/price.
And then there are the sudden ecomomic changes that have impacted every single one of us. Those were completely unseen by 90% of the population and it will change the direction that consumers move. I know for myself, although I look at the online classifieds and have found some *outstanding* deals, I will take none of the opportunities made available there. Before I do that, I must secure my future so I can take care of what I have now. In addition to that, if I can secure what I have now, I will look for a more financially sound investment than more horses. The horses appeal to me, but self restraint is the order of the day at my checkbook. Before I spend $10,000 on a horse, I would put that 10k into my home as a retirement account. I am sure that I am not alone in this.
I think the face of the horse industry is changing rapidly. It is going from glitter and glamour to something less, something more members of a family group can do together. For many activities, like trail riding, you can saddle up at your barn and leave in a group. No need to purchase a truck and trailer, then haul to a show ground 3 hours away, using up gas at $x.00 per gallon. That savings alone, will be significant. That kind of thing, is what is going to bring back the very local shows. Friend 1 has the van to haul the kids, friend 2 has a trailer and a truck, so they all car pool together to get to where they want to go. If Kid #1 has an Arab, and Kid #2 a Paint and Kid #3 a QH....well they won't trailer together to breed shows, now will they?
yep, lots to think about.
Interesting... thanks for posting. A couple of thoughts: as you know, I'm an advocate for changes to APHA rules regarding solid horses. Your comment on DNA struck me: it suggests that changes for APHA are really inevitable. Hope so!
I do think that there are other factors, or ways of considering info in your post: while baby boomers are ready for retirement from an age standpoint, I think the definition of retirement has changed, and many will move on to second (or third) careers and continue as people who have variable incomes, as well as a fixed component. The boomers are less likely to go quietly into sedentary lifestyles, so I would suspect that we'll see this population carry on with horses, skiing, other activities.
We also have increasing evidence of the therapeutic value of horses, whether in therapeutic riding programs or as part of counseling/rehab efforts. This may change the way many of us see horses, and greatly expand their use and value to society.
The 2007 stats for breed/discipline s in Equus showed some interesting trends, with many up (APHA continued its downward path, however).
The industry will, as you note, have to rethink and reinvent itself to remain viable, considering changes in what people want from horses and how they can be integrated into our lives. I'm hopeful.
Thanks for a most excellent article, Juli. One thing that your article touched on, but didn't spend a lot of time exploring, is that never before has there been a time where horses were as easy to adopt as a stray pupppy. While I can envision a lot of negatives from these clueless new owners, I can also see a lot of good, in that finally people who used to see horses as an unattainable goal fit only for the prosperous, can now easily afford a horse.
True, some of these folks will not provide proper care, and will quickly tire of how much durn WORK is involved..but I also think many will get bitten by the bug, and go the extra mile to do whatever it takes to keep horses in their lives once they discover the rewards. Horses tend to have that effect.
Perhaps this is a silver lining....perhaps they will replace some of the baby boomers who are leaving us.
But these people are going to need a lot of help, and I can only hope that there will be enough good hearted horsemen and women out there to reach out to offer assistance, without any snobbery towards them and their "unwanted" horses.
It might also be a wise time for horse clubs to adapt a theme of "owner education & assistance" in their membership drive fliers, ads and emailings.
*just some thoughts from a tired mind in Indiana*...g'nite, God bless.
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