The Breeding Tide Turns
The heyday of horse breeding is over--so over that it might surprise you to learn by how much, and which breeds are seeing the greatest impact.
Consider this: According to statistics gathered and published in the January 08 issue of Horse & Rider's sister publication, EQUUS, here's how registration numbers of various breeds differ between those recorded in 1997 and 2007:
* Appaloosa, down 45%
* Arabian, down 41%
* Tennessee Walking Horse, down 34%
* Paint, down 25%
* Half Arabian, down 23%
* Saddlebred, down 11%
* Morgan, down 6%
* Standardbred, down 3%
Of the breeds studied, only two--Quarter Horse and Thoroughbred, showed increase in registrations. Quarter Horse numbers were up 35%, Thoroughbred numbers were up 7%.
But what the EQUUS stats don't show is that the tide's turned even for Quarter Horses, which until recently appeared to be downturn-proof, with growth recorded every year since 1992. In 2005 and 2006, AQHA registered approximately 165,000 horses; its estimate for 2007 shows a decline of 15,000.
With the many forces buffeting the horse market, the culture, and the economy at large, this downturn isn't surprising. Instead, it's a necessary response to the supply-demand equation.
Because guess what? Transfer-of-ownership statistics are on a similar downward trend. That's a reality-based indicator of what most of us are seeing individually--horses just aren't selling like they were a decade or so ago.
I was an equine journalist in the last big downturn of 20 years ago. The change-causing factors were different then, but the end results were ones we can expect this time around as well.
This is a shakedown period. Some horse-world entities will adapt and survive, and others won't. And the whole horse economy will be different when all the dust gets settled.
Where are you placing your bets?
posted by Juli Thorson @ 11:57 AM
4 comments
4 Comments:
I plan on buying this year. I have discovered miniatures! I am a 50+ woman and have had big horses on and off for most of my life. I have found a whole new world in driving a little guy that is 33" tall! I plan to get another one that is even better.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the miniature breed increase in sales in the coming years. They are easier on the aging bodies that have the purchasing power. Yes, some of us will still be purchasing big horses, maybe for a grandchild. Or maybe, some of us will be going to finally show AQHA in the old lady class! Regardless, I think those of us that will be buying this year, no matter the breed, will look for horses that are better bred with better conformation, so that when the time comes to sell our critter, we will be able to. I also think that if we train our horses (or have them trained) in whatever discipline, they will be more likely to sell.
I'm not sure, but I've watching it closely this past year. People ae giving away registered horses. This economy is going to get worse even yet. Let's face it, it costs money to keep horses and run breeding programs and if people can't afford it....well.....
You're stats don't surprise me. Since I am involved with horse rescue, 75-80% of the horses found at killer buyer feedlots or on the way to the slaughter house are either QH or TB.
Perhaps this is a rhetorical question, but why is it a bad thing to have registration numbers drop? Why is "more" always better?? Because regardless of whether numbers are "up" or "down", finding a really good horse is incredibly hard to do. So, what that tells me is that judging the "health" of our associations by numbers of registered horses is sheer bunk. Is it good to have massive quantities of, for lack of a better term, CRAPPY animals in our respective breeds, just to say that "numbers are up"??? I guarentee NOT, judging by the many abandoned, unwanted, and destined-for-slaughter horses out there.
I would think that the better method for judging how well a breed is doing is to go to all of the rescue farms, aution-lots, and slaughterhouse holding pens and see which breeds are NOT represented. This would give us all a better clue as to what is really going on.
Why don't the associations measure their success based off of the number of PEOPLE who have memberships??????? Surely that is a valid way to gauge how popular and growing/not growing an association is doing, regardless of the fact that some people own multiple animals, wouldn't you think?
Sorry to sound off, but I am sick to death of people just breeding, breeding, breeding.......and our associations touting that as a way to measure the health of the breed, when in reality it is quite detrimental in a lot of ways. Registration for arabians was really up back in the 80's, and most of those animals wound up at slaughter, abused, neglected, you name it. Do we really want to wind up back there again??
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